第 533 章 2026年：攻守互换，规则护航！
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《2025：穿越波动，见证转折！》
一觉醒来，日历即翻到了2026年。这段时间，我反复思量新年文章的落点，以及如何为这一年投资布局。
回望过去几年，我们曾用风险、希望、转折等词定义不同阶段的市场。而要定义已经到来的2026年，这个问题远比以往更复杂。
01|攻守互换，历史的必然进程
4年前的2022年2月，我们一开始公开分享时，就郑重分析并研判了未来5年的大局势，结论至今未变：“以后五年的A股市场将在这一历史进程下进行，中美斗争以及统一台湾是以后五年的大背景。”——《对错、立场与智商》
按照当年的预判，这一大背景将持续到2026年，甚至延伸到2027年。在我的心中，此事分量远重于股市盈利，二者没有可比性，相信多数弟兄们亦同此心。
2026年，中美斗争将开始攻守互换。斗争是残酷的，不是你好我好大家好，不是请客吃饭，但荣耀终将再次回归中华。而祖国统一，便是这一进程的里程碑事件，这是任何势力都无法阻挡的历史必然。
02|不确定性攀升，收益与风险共存
从转折到攻守互换，许多人易陷入新误区：从悲观论滑向速胜论——而这也是我们提前多次批判的错误观念之一。
对投资者而言，攻守互换意味着不确定性攀升、突发状况增多、巨大风险和收益高度共生，这在近期的市场已初现端倪。
2026年，缺乏规则的投资者将面临双重风险的叠加：外部是大环境的不确定性，内部是过去两年市场积累丰厚盈利后的回调压力，其本质仍是个人投资能力与风险意识的缺位。
如果说很多投资者对过去两年的感受是不容易赚钱，那么在2026年，他们的感受将不仅是赚钱不易，更是变得亏钱太易了。
因此，我们必须持续敬畏市场，提升认知，脚踏实地，主动将风险防控前置。新的一年，我们也会继续减少公开发言。
03|规则护航，用规则应对不确定性
越是不确定性加剧、风险暗涌之时，越需规则护航。
做好可控之事，以规则应对不可控之变，盈利自会水到渠成。——《从晚霞到股市，用可控规则对抗不确定性》
过去几年，不少朋友因我们预判的屡屡应验而欣喜，甚至生出依赖。但2026年，预判难度将显著上升，规则的重要性将进一步凸显——它才是投资的核心与关键。
当市场将处于狂风巨浪、漫天大雾中时，唯有规则可护周全，不守规则的小船终将倾覆。
小小寰球，有几个苍蝇碰壁。嗡嗡叫，几声凄厉，几声抽泣。蚂蚁缘槐夸大国，蚍蜉撼树谈何易。正西风落叶下长安，飞鸣镝。
多少事，从来急；天地转，光阴迫。一万年太久，只争朝夕。四海翻腾云水怒，五洲震荡风雷激。要扫除一切害人虫，全无敌。
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